Was the Earthquake Really a Surprise?

The Sichuan basin is located in southwest China. It is surrounded by mountains and several major rivers flow through it, including the Yangtze, the longest in Asia. This map shows the epicenters of the earthquakes which occurred between 1963 and 1998. It leaves no doubt about the danger of earthquakes in the area.

Though construction in the entire region was subjected to severe anti-seismic regulations, an insignificant percentage of structures were actually constructed in accordance to these regulations. But there have been Chinese constructions highly resistant to earthquakes in China for centuries. In 313 A.D., in the Sanxi province, a monastery was constructed which resisted disastrous earthquakes, including an earthquake which measured 8.2 on the Richter scale. The same can be said about the Zhauzhou bridge, in the Herbei province. It was constructed in 581 A.D. and remained in excellent condition after three serious earthquakes. According to the L.A. Times, the building codes adopted by Beijing are considered by experts to be "no less stringent than those in place in California and Japan" but engineers who have worked in the region of the epicenter of the earthquake reported that a great amount of unregulated construction has taken place over the years.

Public buildings including schools and hospitals literally disintegrated when the earthquake hit. Again the L.A.Times reports "At least eight schools were flattened in the quake, included the three-story Juyuan Middle School in nearby Dujiangyan, where hundreds of students were buried. It was unclear whether the schools collapsed because they were too old, had faulty design or were constructed poorly or with cheap materials."

Giving the most generous benefit of the doubt, many building nay have been constructed before the anti-seismic laws (and subsequently never updated so as to respect the norms). In the worst hypothesis, the norms were simply ignored and local authorities turned a blind eye to this practice.

This is hardly surprising if we remember the neglect (if not worse) of the Chinese authorities that permitted the construction of highly toxic chemical plants so close to populated areas in the name of economic expansion?

The devastation caused by the earthquake caused anger all over the nation, especially regarding the images of government buildings left perfectly intact (just as the offices of foreign companies in the region, like Motorola and Microsoft) "in the same town where parents were wailing as the bodies of their children were pulled out of demolished schools."

"Did the Chinese government possess enough information to have known that such a disaster could have occurred?" – this is the obvious question on everyone’s mind.

Ten months before the earthquake occurred, a scientific study warned that the region was at risk of a major earthquake. But three days before the earthquake, Chinese authorities denied that this was the case.

After examining satellite images and conducting on-site inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning. "The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics. They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy.

With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.

The angry reaction of the population has forced the Ministry of Internal Affairs to organize an investigation. It’s easy to foresee the result of the investigation: a few scapegoats will be found, a couple of corrupt bureaucrats (from among the many) who will be sacrificed to divert the people’s attention (as well as the attention of the media) from those who are truly the causes of tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

In the meanwhile, the government is making good demagogic use of the images of the tragedy: the ambiguous, cold Wen Jiabao, who just two months ago would only respond to questions about crisis in Tibet, is now being followed by television reporters from all over the world and is continuously releasing statements regarding the estimates of the dead, wounded, homeless and missing and the conditions of the areas affected by the earthquake. He cries in front of the cameras.

The Chinese regime is busy trying to divert international and domestic attention from even more serious problems - such as the danger caused by the presence of plutonium plants in the areas affected by the earthquake and the Zipingpu dam which is at risk of collapse, and which would then place the 500,000 inhabitants of Dujiagyan at risk – by placing humanitarian emergencies in the forefront. This is completely in character for the Chinese regime.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-construct14-2008may14,0,7810488.story

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